[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2814 (S22W37, Bxo/beta) underwent minor decay this period but remained quiet. Two new areas of flux with immature sunspots were detected near S21W11 and S22E70, but remain unnumbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 16-18 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 16 Apr, with high levels likely on 17-18 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced this period following the likely arrival of the 10 Apr CME. Total field strength values ranged between 1-11 nT, and Bz was briefly southward between 16/0200-0700 UTC at around -2/-6 nT before rotating northward. Solar wind speeds increased from ~340-475 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced over 16-18 Apr due to the influence of multiple negative polarity CH HSSs.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels on 16 and 18 Apr, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 17 Apr, due to the influence of negative polarity CH HSSs.

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