[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Apr 19 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Apr 19 0151 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 April 2021

Solar activity was very low throughout the period with B-class flare activity observed from Rgn 2814 (S22, L=008, class/area Cro/090 on 14 Apr), Rgn 2815 (S21, L=344, class/area Bxo/010 on 16 Apr) and Rgn 2816 (S24, L=264, class/area Cao/080 on 16 Apr). The largest event of the period was a B9 x-ray event observed at 17/1717 UTC from a region beyond the ESE limb. Associated with this event was a Type II radio signature with an estimated shock velocity of 382 km/s and a slow-moving, non-Earth directed CME off the E limb.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 12-16 Apr. High levels were observed on 17-18 Apr with a maximum flux reading of 14,078 pfu at 18/1905 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 12-14 Apr with an isolated active period observed late on the 14th. Unsettled to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels were reached early on 15 Apr due to possible effects from the 10 Apr CME. Mostly unsettled to active levels were observed on 16-18 Apr, with G1 (Minor) storn levels observed on 16 and 17 Apr. This activity was all due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. During this activity, wind speeds reached 600 km/s, total field reached maximums of 13 nT and the Bz component reached -10 nT at times.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 April - 15 May 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels during the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 19-24 Apr and 13-15 May due to high speed solar winds. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated for 25-30 Apr and 01-12 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 19-20 Apr, 23-24 Apr, 27-28 Apr, 04 May, 08 May and 11-15 May, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 13-14 May. This activity is all due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

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