[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low as the visible solar disk remained spotless. Beginning at about 31/1605, GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery observed plage brightening and coronal dimming in the vicinity of plage Region 2849 (S27, L=074). GOES-16 x-ray data recorded a long-duration B2.4 event. STEREO-A COR2 coronagraph imagery observed a CME beginning at about 31/1753 UTC. Analysis/WSA Enlil modeling is ongoing to determine if the ejecta has an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue on 01-03 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels on 01-03 Aug.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speeds decreased from 450-400 km/s. Total field and Bz were at benign levels. Phi switched from positive to negative near 31/2000 UTC.

Forecast: Possible CME activity from 28 Jul is anticipated to pass close to Earth on 01 Aug. If Earth experiences any effects, they are expected to be weak, and might linger through 02 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 01-02 Aug, with isolated active intervals possible on 01 Aug due to possible influences from the close proximity of a passing transient.

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