[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Aug 02 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Jul 26 0122 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 July 2021

Solar activity was very low on 22 and 25 July with only B-class flares observed. Low levels of solar activity were observed on 19-21, and 23-24 July due to C-class flare activity. A total of six C-flares were observed this period, five C1 flares and a C4 flare at 24/0033 UTC. Regions 2845 (S15, L=195, class/area=Dso/60 on 21 July) and 2849 (S18, L=058, class/area=Axx/20 on 22 July) were the primary producers of C-class flare activity this period. A slow-moving CME observed on 25 July from the vicinity of plage region 2848 (N21, L=120 on 25 July) may disrupt the near-Earth solar wind environment on 29 July. Multiple other CMEs were observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery throughout the week, however, none were Earth-directed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled and active levels on 22 July due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 19-20 July, and quiet levels were observed on 21 and 23-25 July under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 July - 21 August 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low-to-low throughout the outlook period with B-class flares expected and a chance for C-class flares.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 28-29 July due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and the possible glancing blow of a CME from 25 July. Active conditions are expected on 10 Aug, with unsettled conditions expected on 11 Aug, due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled conditions are expected on 16-17 Aug due to recurrent positive polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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