[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2850 (S30, L=004) was quiet and decayed to plage. New Regions 2851 (N15, L=303) and 2852 (S11, L=254) were numbered this period and rapidly decayed to plage regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue on 06-08 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 05/1405 UTC with a maximum of 1,570 pfu observed at 05/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 06-08 Aug while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total IMF strength ranged from 3-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Slow solar wind speeds meandered between about 285-317 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: The approach of a CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS will likely precede CH HSS onset early on 06 Aug. Solar wind parameters are likely to remain somewhat enhanced through 08 Aug due to CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Field conditions are expected to be at unsettled to isolated active levels on 06 Aug due to CIR arrival and positive polarity CH HSS effects. Continued CH HSS influences from isolated CH HSSs are anticipated for 07-08 Aug with quiet to unsettled geomagnetic responses.

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