[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The only two spotted regions on the disk were 2856 (N14W67, Axx/alpha) and 2857 (N18W07, Bxo/beta). The rest of the spot groups decayed to plage. Other activity of note included a large prominence eruption observed in GOES 16 SUVI 304 imagery beginning at 15/0508 UTC from just beyond the east limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on 15-17 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 15-17 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced, likely due to a weak connection with the positive polarity polar coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased after 15/0315 UTC to near 430 km/s while the total field increased to 6-8 nT. The Bz component was between +6/-8 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive sector.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the solar wind are likely through 17 Aug due to a connection with northern crown polar coronal hole.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet with isolated unsettled periods are expected on 15-17 Aug due to weak CH HSS effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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