[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2857 (N17W34, Bxo/beta) exhibited decay in its leading spots and was quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 17-19 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 17-19 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to suggest the gradual, waning influence of a CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 500 km/s but gradually decreased to end the period near 460 km/s. Total field averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component was between +/-4 nT, and Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the solar wind are likely through 17 Aug due to a connection with northern crown polar coronal hole. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 18-19 Aug following a return to mostly ambient solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet with isolated unsettled periods is possible on 17 Aug due to residual CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 18-19 Aug as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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