[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2858 (N13W08, Cro/beta) was stable and only produced a few B-level enhancements in background X-rays. Region 2857 (N14W63, Axx/alpha) regained a spot, but was unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 19-21 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters returned to an ambient-like state over the course of the period. Total field ranged 3-5 nT, and the Bz component was mostly near neutral or northward, but did deflect southward up to -5 nT near the end of the period. Wind speeds fell from near 435 km/s to near 320 km/s before slightly rising again to just above 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly in the positive solar sector, but began to deviate into the negative late in the period.

Forecast: A background solar wind regime is expected on 19-20 Aug. By 21 Aug, a small, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position bringing weak enhancements to the IMF.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 19-20 Aug. An increase to unsettled levels are possible as the small, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

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