[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2859 (N20E39, Cao/beta) exhibited decay in its intermediate and trailer spots, and remained inactive.

In addition to the CMEs mentioned in the previous discussion, SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed another large filament erupting in the northwest quadrant of the Sun from approximately 24/0300-0845 UTC. Analysis will be accomplished as imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on 24-26 Aug.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 24-26 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained near background levels. Solar wind speed averaged near 300 km/s, total field ranged from 3-7 nT, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -5 nT. Phi angle was in a negative orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to reflect SSBC influence on 24 Aug, with the anticipated onset of the positive polarity coronal hole extension of the northern crown by 25-26 Aug. A weak glancing blow from the passing CMEs associated with the filament eruptions on 22-23 Aug is possible late on 26 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with active periods likely late on 24 Aug due to an anticipated SSBC. Activity is expected to increase to active levels on 25-26 Aug due to the onset of an extension of the northern crown coronal hole combined with a weak glancing blow from the passing CMEs late on 26 Aug.

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