[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2860 (S27E29, Cao/beta) showed appreciable growth and produced an isolated C1 flare at 25/0124 UTC. Region 2859 (N19E19, Hsx/alpha) underwent decay but did manage to produce a C1 flare at 24/1449 UTC.

The ejecta associated with the B8.8 x-ray enhancement observed at 24/1216 UTC, which was mentioned in the 25/0030 UTCX forecast discussion, was determined to be heading well east of the Sun-Earth line.

No additional CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on 25-27 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 25-27 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment became enhanced with what is likely the initial onset of the anticipated, positive polarity CH HSS. Total field briefly peaked at 12 nT and remained around 8 nT for several hours around the beginning of the day before returning to more background-like readings. During this time the Bz component turned southward in excess of -5 nT. Wind speed was generally less than 400 km/s but did show a slight upward trend while the IMF was agitated. Phi was variable, which suggests Earth has yet to fully connect with this HSS.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become elevated again later on 25 Aug once Earth better connects with an anticipated, positive polarity CH HSS. Further enhancements are likely on 26-27 Aug with a possible glancing blow from the 23 Aug CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, on 25 Aug, due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly unsettled levels are expected thereafter (26-27 Aug) under continued positive polarity CH HSS conditions and potentially, weak, CME effects. Occasional active periods (Kp=4) are also possible.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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