[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Aug 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Aug 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2860 (S27W51, Eki/beta) produced a few C-flares the first half of the period, the largest of which was a C3 flare observed at the GOES-16 satellite at 30/2134 UTC. Region 2859 (N18W60, Axx/alpha) was stable and inactive. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to reach low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 31 Aug.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to fluctuate between moderate and high levels through 02 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were marginally elevated. Solar wind speeds peaked near the beginning of the forecast period around 420 km/s and leveled off around 380 km/s by the end of the period. Total magnetic field strength increased to around 5 nT and Bz underwent no significant southward deviations. Phi angle continued to be variable.

Forecast: Minor enhancement in the solar wind are likely on 31 Aug as the 26 Aug CME passes near Earth. Solar wind parameters are expected to once again become enhanced on 01-02 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of the 28 Aug CME combined with a CME from a filament that disappeared from near center meridian at around 1800 UTC on 28 Aug.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions on 31 Aug with minor, intermittent influences from the 26 Aug CME that is passing south of Earth. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 01 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of the 28 Aug CME. G2 (Moderate) storm levels are forecast for 02 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of the 28 Aug CME combined with a CME from a filament that disappeared from near center meridian at around 1800 UTC on 28 Aug.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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