[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Low levels of solar activity continued due to occasional C-class flares, the largest being a C2/Sf at 08/0009 UTC. There were five sunspot groups present on the visible disk. New Region 2869 (S35E18, Bxo/beta) was assigned to a newly emerged small group. Region 2863 (S17W47, Hsx/alpha) decayed further and was inactive. Region 2864 (N24W38, Cso/beta) also underwent some decay, but was the source of the aforementioned C2 flare. This flare was associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps. Additionally, CME related signatures were observed in GOES-16 SUVI imagery. However, we await updated coronagraph imagery to corroborate and analyze any likely CME. Region 2866 (S18E13, Dkc/beta) grew further in size and was the source of a recent C1/Sf flare. The lead spot in Region 2868 (S21W02, Ehi/beta) grew, while the trailer spots decreased in size and spread further across the region. The region was also the source of a C1/Sf flare.

Forecast: Low levels are expected 08 Sep due to activity history early in the reporting period. Low levels remain likely 09-10 Sep and there continues to be a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) all three days.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,480 pfu measured at 07/1800 UTC at GOES-16. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 08-10 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an enhanced and disturbed state. Total IMF strength increased and peaked at 12 nT. The Bz component underwent prolonged periods of southward direction, with a peak deviation of -9 nT. Solar wind speed increased from ~300 km/s early in the period to peak near 440 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive, but several periods of prolonged negative deflections occurred.

Forecast: The solar wind field is anticipated to remain disturbed and enhanced through 08 Sep. A return to more ambient, background-like conditions is expected on 09-10 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to the elevated IMF and prolonged periods of southward Bz component.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are expected 08 Sep as the disturbed solar wind field continues. An early period of unsettled conditions remains likely on 09 Sep, otherwise mainly quiet conditions are expected 09-10 Sep as disturbed solar wind conditions are likely to abate.

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