[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low as only B-class flares occurred. There were six sunspot groups present on the visible disk. Region 2863 (S15W73, Hsx/alpha) underwent modest decay. Region 2864 (N24W69, Hsx/alpha) also decayed slightly. Region 2866 (S18W12, Dkc/beta) decreased in areal coverage, but was otherwise little changed. It was the source of the largest flare, a B8/Sf at 09/1716 UTC. Region 2868 (S22W26, Dki/beta-gamma) gained a mixed polarity in the trailer spots and produced a B7 flare at 09/2255 UTC. Region 2869 (S34W07, Cso/beta) increased in coverage and Region 2870 (S31E51, Axx/alpha) was stable.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery during the period.

Forecast: Low levels of solar activity are expected 10-11 Sep due to the combined flare probabilities of all six regions. Low levels are slightly less probable and become likely on 12 Sep as a pair of regions (2863 and 2684) rotate beyond the limb. There remains a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) all three days due primarily to the complexity and potential instability of Regions 2866 and 2868.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 10-12 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime, mildly enhanced IMF, and likely proximity to the HCS. Total IMF strength returned to ambient, background levels the first half of the period, but strengthened later to peak at 9 nT. The Bz component was mainly directed weakly southward, with a max southward deflection of -5 nT until about 09/0455 UTC, when it deflected northward. Solar wind speed ranged mostly from 335-400 km/s and the phi angle alternated between sectors.

Forecast: Near background solar wind conditions are expected the remainder of 10 Sep into the first half of 11 Sep. Near midday on 11 Sep, the CME associated with the 08/0009 UTC C2/Sf flare could possibly result in minor enhancements in the IMF later on 11 Sep and into 12 Sep, if the CME grazes the Earth. Model analysis indicates the CME should miss the Earth, but confidence is low to moderate on that analysis.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected the remainder of 10 Sep. Isolated unsettled periods are possible later on 11 Sep and into 12 Sep, due to effects related to the likely proximity of the nearby CME passage.

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