[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to a long duration, C1/Sf flare from Region 2868 (S22W40, Dki/beta), observed at 10/2134 UTC. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Regions 2866 (S18W25, Dkc/beta), 2869 (S34W20, Cao/beta) and 2868. The rest of the spotted regions were stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares due primarily to the complexity of Regions 2866 and 2868.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 11-13 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced under weak CME influence. Total field increased to 13 nT by 10/1635 UTC while the Bz component was mostly between +/-6 nT with a brief excursion to -10 nT late in the period . Solar wind speed averaged around 360 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Transient influence is expected to continue through 11 Sep with a possible further enhancement late on 11 Sep to early on 12 Sep as the 08 Sep CME grazes past the geomagnetic field. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to return on 13 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected early on 11 Dec due to continued CME influence followed by possible unsettled conditions late on 11 Dec to early on 12 Dec following the 08 Sep CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 13 Sep.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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