[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached very low levels. The three remaining spotted regions all exhibited decay during the period and only managed B-class activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares due primarily to the complexity of Regions 2866 and 2868.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 12-14 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be influenced by weak CME effects over the period. Total field ranged from 4-13 nT while the Bz component was between +10/-7 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from about 300-350 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: A enhancement on 12 Sep is possible as the 08 Sep CME grazes past the near Earth environment. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to return on 13-14 Sep.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 12 Sep due to possible weak CME influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 13-14 Sep.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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