Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 15 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. One sunspot group remained visible on the sun - Region 2866 (S18W79, Hsx/alpha) decayed further as it neared the west limb. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 15-17 Sep, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 15-16 Sep.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 15-17 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent, yet weakening influence of the northern crown CH HSS. Total field averaged near 4 nT and the Bz component was between +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speed generally ranged from 400-475 km/s, but trended downward. The phi angle remained in a positive sector.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly weaken throughout the remainder of 15 Sep, returning to mostly background levels by 16 Sep. On 17 Sep, moderate enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible with an anticipated glancing blow from the 13 Sep CME, combined with the likely onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected 15-16 Sep as the CH HSS rotates away from its geoeffective position. By 17 Sep, the combined effects from a negative polarity CH HSS and the possible arrival of the 13 Sep CME could result in unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for isolated G1 (minor) levels.
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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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