[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Sep 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Sep 29 1230 UTC.

Solar activity was at low levels.

The partial, asymmetric halo CME produced by Region 2871 (S28W60, Axx/alpha) early on the 28th was modeled with a speed of 811 km/s and is expected to overtake the 27th Sep CME, arriving late on 30 Sep/early on 01 Oct.

There were three other spotted regions on the disk. Region 2877 (S18W35, Cao/beta-gamma) showed growth while gaining trailing spots, but still lacked mature penumbra. Region 2880 (N30E49, Cri/beta) grew in its intermediate spots and produced a C1.3 flare at 29/0218 UTC. Region 2881 (N16W26, Axx/alpha) remained inactive while showing signs of decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for C-class flares 29 Sep - 01 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate levels through 30 Sep with a chance of crossing into high levels on 01 Oct with CME influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary:

Solar wind parameters reflected continued yet waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field values were 2-4 nT, the Bz component was mostly near neutral, and wind speeds gradually decreased from ~547 to ~440 km/s. The phi angle periodically switched to a negative sector the first half of the period, but was otherwise positive.

Forecast: Residual CH HSS influence is expected 29 Sep as wind speeds are anticipated to remain slightly elevated. The CME from 28 Sep is expected to arrive late on 30 Sep into the first part of 01 Oct. The best chance for enhancements are early on 01 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under waning positive polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for an isolated active period, are expected for the remainder of 29 Sep. Quiet conditions are anticipated most of 30 Sep until the arrival of the 28 Sep CME when conditions are expected to rise to active levels. G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a slight chance of G2 (moderate) storming, early to mid 01 Oct when CME effects are at their greatest.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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