[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels this period. Region 2877 (S21W86, Hsx/alpha) produced a pair of C1 events observed at 02/2240 UTC and 03/0722 UTC. The region also produced some B-class activity with low frequency radio emissions, including a 100 sfu Tenflare at 03/0523 UTC. Region 2880 (N31W00, Dsi/beta) indicated some intermediate spot growth, but remained quiet.

A pair of CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the W and SW limb at 02/1800 UTC and 02/2300 UTC, respectively. Analysis and modeling of these CMEs suggests that they are directed ahead of the Sun-Earth line, thus no Earth impact is expected.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity on 03-05 Oct, and a slight chance of M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 03 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels are expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 03-05 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influence. Solar wind speeds meandered between 400-450 km/s, total field ranged between 2-6 nT and the Bz component varied weakly between +/-3 nT. Phi was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through 05 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels due to weakening CME influence.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected through 05 Oct with a nominal solar wind.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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