[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2882 (N20E20, Dso/beta-gamma) produced the strongest event of the period, a C1 flare at 08/1108 UTC. The region developed several smaller spots and rudimentary penumbra to the north of its largest spot. Region 2880 (N31, L=248) decayed to plage. Analysis and modeling of a slow-moving CME from near the SW limb early on 07 Oct is ongoing.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected with a chance for C-class flares 08-10 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background 08-10 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds were slow, between ~285-325 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are likely to continue under the influence of a slow regime. Minor IMF disturbances and enhancements are possible 08-10 Oct due to weak, nearby passing transients and slight influences of a nearby negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet, with isolated periods of unsettled possible from potential coronal hole influence, over 08-10 Oct.

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