[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2885 (N15, L=172) decayed to plage as it rotated towards the W limb. Region 2882 (N15W70, Hhx/alpha) continued to simplify and was quiet over the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected, with a slight chance for C-class flares over 15-17 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background 15-17 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 1-9 Nt but mostly hovered at or below 5 nT for the majority of the period. Bz briefly reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT at 14/2253 UTC. Solar wind speeds were between 332-383 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive after 14/2347 UTC.

Forecast: Weak influences of a negative polarity CH HSS may result in minor disturbances in the solar wind field on 15 Oct. Additional, weak enhancements in the IMF are possible on 16-17 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Weak CH HSS effects on 15 Oct are expected to result in quiet to unsettled conditions. Primarily quiet conditions are expected on 16-17 Oct.

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