[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Oct 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Oct 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2887 (S26W03, Dhi/beta-gamma) developed a few more intermediate spots, mainly near the trailer portion of the region, and produced an M1/1N flare (R1-Minor) at 28/0740 UTC and an M2/1F flare at 28/1028 UTC. This region was also responsible for several C-class flares early in the period. Four other numbered regions remain on the visible disk. Region 2891 (N18E60, Cao/beta) continued to rotate into view, but has changed little while decreasing in overall activity. Region 2886 (S19W62, Hsx/alpha), Region 2889 (S23E23, Bxo/beta), and Region 2890 (S18W46, Bxo/beta) all exhibited decay and were inactive throughout the period.

At approximately 26/2024 UTC a CME was observed off the Suns SE limb by LASCO C2. As this CME propagated outward, it appeared to have a very faint SW component as observed in STEREO-A. The source region is not clear, but a possible candidate is dimming near region 2887 just after 26/1900 UTC. Initial analysis and model run indicate a glancing blow late on 30 Oct. Additional analysis was conducted, but it too resulted in a low confidence outcome.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 28 Oct. As most of the regions continue to decay, conditions are expected to return to very low levels, with C-Flares likely and a continued slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 28-30 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect a background solar wind regime. Total field averaged near 3 nT, the Bz component was near neutral or northward, and wind speeds decreased further to end the period near 300 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector with isolated, brief oscillations into the positive sector near the end of the period.

Forecast:

A near-background solar wind regime is expected to continue through 28 Oct. During the second half of 29 Oct, weak CH HSS influence is anticipated to bring slight enhancements to the IMF and continue through 30 Oct. Additional enhancements are possible late 30 Oct with the possible glancing arrival of the 26 Oct CME, if initial modeling holds true.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to continue through 28 Oct. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected 29-30 Oct due to weak CH HSS effects. The chance for an isolated active period is possible late on 30 Oct with the arrival of a glancing blow from the 26 Oct CME. However, confidence remains low with this CME forecast.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation