[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Dec 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Dec 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1 flare at 05/0719 UTC and multiple C-class flares from Region 2898 (S24, L=236) beyond the west limb. Multiple CMEs were observed originating from that region. Due to the locations of the eruptions at or beyond the west limb, no CME effects are expected.

New spot emergence was observed in Region 2903 (S16W18, Axx/alpha). New Region 2904 (S26E48, Bxo/beta) was numbered today.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected on 05-07 Dec, with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum value of 1,220 pfu at 04/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 05-07 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were elevated due to CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed averaged around 450 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-8 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be elevated on 05 Dec under HSS conditions. Solar wind speeds approaching and possibly exceeding 500 km/s are likely to continue before slowly tapering down on 06-07 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are forecast for 05 Dec due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 06-07 Dec as HSS effects slowly wane.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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