[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 Dec 06 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 Dec 06 0224 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 November - 05 December 2021

Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Region 2898 (S24, L=236, class/area Dao/140 on 27 Nov) produced an M1 flare at 05/0719 UTC, the largest of the period. The region had recently rotated around the W limb before producing the event. With the exception of Region 2904 (S27, L=80, class/area Bxo/30), which developed recently in the SW quadrant, all other regions were either in decay or quietly rotated off of the visible disk.

Other Earth-directed activity included a ~40 degree filament eruption centered near S45W10, beginning around 05/1103 UTC in SDOAIA 304 imagery. A subsequent faint CME signature was noted in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 05/1412 UTC. Preliminary analysis and modeling suggests a slow-moving Earth-directed component that'll arrive at Earth 09-10 Dec.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from moderate to high levels. High levels were reached on 01-05 Dec, with the highest recorded flux of 4,870 pfu at 03/1520 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 29-30 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions were observed late on 30 Nov in response to the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind conditions surrounding the event consisted of a total magnetic field strength increase to a peak of 15 nT, the Bz component rotated as far south as -12 nT and solar wind speeds increased from ~350 km/s to ~475 km/s. Active conditions were observed after as the HSS proper set in over 01 Dec, and on 29 Nov in response to waning weak transient influence. Periodic unsettled conditions were observed over 02-05 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 December - 01 January 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 06-08 Dec, 11-12 Dec, 20-23 Dec and 29 Dec-01 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. All increases in electron flux are due to the influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 17 Dec and 27-28 Dec; active conditions are likely on 13 Dec, 18 Dec and 29 Dec; unsettled levels are likely on 06-07 Dec, 10-11 Dec, 14 Dec, 19-20 Dec and 30 Dec - 01 Jan. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are in anticipation of influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.

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