[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Dec 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Dec 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels with a C1/Sf flare at 12/2114 UTC from a mostly plage area near S20E74. New spot development occurred in the NE and SE quadrants. New Region 2905 (S11E38, Bxo/beta) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on 13-15 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 13-15 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from ~300-325 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-9 nT while the Bz component was between +4/-5 nT. Phi angle meandered between sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters could become weakly enhanced on 13 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. A return to nominal levels is likely by 14 Dec. Another negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause an enhancement around midday on 15 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 13 Dec due to possible CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14 Dec. Unsettled to active levels are expected around midday on 15 Dec as another negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.

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