[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Dec 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Dec 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2905 (S11E24, Axx/alpha) exhibited decay and was quiet. Regions 2906 (S28E31, Cao/beta) and 2907 (S19E56, Cro/beta) both saw overall growth and development with 2906 producing an impulsive C1.4/SF flare at 14/0826 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity levels are expected, with a slight chance for C-class flares 14-16 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 14-16 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mostly ambient-like, background regime. Total field was 2-8 nT, the Bz component briefly reached -6 nT and solar wind speeds were ~300-335 km/s. Phi became variable around 13/1911 UTC.

Forecast: A varying, yet slightly disturbed and enhanced solar wind field is anticipated 14-16 Dec due to weak and fluctuating influences from a pair of isolated, negative polarity CH HSS fields.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled 14-16 Dec, with an isolated active period likely on 15 Dec due to a more favorable and better connection to a negative polarity CH HSS.

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