[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Jan 17 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Jan 17 0208 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 January 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to isolated moderate levels. Very low to low levels were observed on 10-13 Jan with weak C-class events observed from beyond the NE limb. An isolated R1 (Minor) radio blackout event was observed from beyond the NE limb at 14/0203 UTC that peaked at M1. Additional weak C-class activity was observed from this same unnumbered region on 14 Jan. Region 2925 (S34, L=008, class/area Dso/240 on 05 Jan) produced a C4/1f at 14/1334 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the SW limb with a potential glancing blow expected at Earth on 17 Jan. Low level activity was observed on 15 Jan from Region 2924 (S31, L=038, class/area Ehi/430 on 08 Jan) and Region 2932 (N31, L=245, class/area Cro/020 on 15 Jan). 16 Jan witnessed additional C-class activity from Region 2930 (N20, L=320, class/area Dso/100 on 16 Jan) and an LDE C2/Sf from Region 2929. No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, there was a weak enhancement to 1.7 pfu observed at 15/2115 UTC, possibly associated with shock passage from the 14 Jan CME.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was was at moderate levels on 10-15 Jan and at high levels on 16 Jan with a maximum flux of 2,280 pfu observed at 16/1910 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 10 Jan through midday on 14 Jan. By midday to late on 14 Jan, activity increased to unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due to a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Imbedded in this activity was a possibly transient from an earlier, undetected CME. Activity levels remained enhanced to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 15-16 Jan due to continued negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 January - 12 February 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, on 17-21 Jan due to the complexity of Region 2929. Very low to low levels are expected on 22 Jan - 02 Feb. Very low to low levels, with a slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, is expected on 03-12 Feb with the potential return of old Region 2929.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 17-23 Jan and again on 12 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 24 Jan - 11 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 18, 24-26, 28-30 Jan, 05, 10 and 12 Feb, with active levels expected on 17 Jan, 04, and 11 Feb, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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