[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 May 09 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 May 09 0232 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 May 2022

Solar activity was ranged from low to high levels. High levels were observed on 03-04 May in response to an X1/Sf flare (R3-Strong) at 03/1308 UTC, an M5 flare (R2-Moderate) 04/0019 UTC, and an M5/1b flare at 04/0900 UTC. The X-flare and first M-Flare were from Region 3006 (S29, L=245, class/area=Cao/080 on 07 May) as it was behind the SE limb. The last M5 flare was from Region 3004 (S16, L=324, class/area=Dkc/500 on 05 May). Associated with the M5 flare from Region 3006 was a Type IV radio sweep. Both regions produced moderate activity from smaller M1-M2 flares (R1-Minor) over 05 May. Only C-class activity was observed for 02 May and 06-08 May. The two regions were responsible for the vast majority of flare activity during the week. Only Region 3007 (S23, L=190, class/area=Cao/060 on 08 May) was able to produce additional flare activity but the events remained in the C-class range.

While many CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery only two, one from 03 May and one from 07 May, were thought to have an Earth-directed component. Each CME was thought to only produce a weak glancing blow at Earth's magnetosphere on 08 May and 10 May respectively.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels every day over the reporting period due to activity from a negative polarity CH HSS. The maximum observed flux was 2,320 pfu at 03/1340 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was ranged from quiet to unsettled. A waning negative polarity CH HSS caused an isolated period of unsettled conditions at the beginning of 02 May. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 May - 04 June 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels during the outlook period. However, there is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) activity throughout the period due to multiple regions currently on the visible disk and several that are expected to rotate on back onto the visible disk that produced M-class activity before rotating beyond the W limb.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are expected from 26 May to 04 Jun due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to reach moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 24 May; active conditions are likely on 20 May and 25-27 May due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Unsettled conditions over 10-11 May are likely due to influence from a glancing blow CME. Additional unsettled conditions are likely 21 May and 28 May due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.

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