[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Jul 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Jul 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels. Region 3057 (N16E51, Dho/beta) produced the largest flare of the period, a C7/Sf flare at 12/1354 UTC. The other two numbered regions of interest, Regions 3053 (N15W25, Eki/beta) and 3055 (S16W15, Eki/beta), were inactive. Region 3053 underwent significant decay, losing over 50 percent of its sunspot area. There were still numerous filaments on the disk, but all continued to be stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and a slight chance for X-flares (R3 Strong or greater radio blackouts) on 13-15 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was less than 1 pfu and continued to trend towards background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement exceeding alert thresholds (S1 Minor) through 15 Jul with large sunspot groupings present. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength peaked at 9 nT and Bz deviated southward frequently. Bz observed a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. Wind speeds averaged near 500 km/s. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced over 13-14 Jul due to combined transient and CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to trend towards background levels on 15 Jul but remain elevated.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed early in the period with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS combined with ongoing CME effects. Quiet to unsettled periods have been observed since.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are again likely on 13 Jul in response to additional positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active levels are likely to last into 14 Jul with elevated wind speeds. The IMF is expected to recover by 15 Jul, allowing the geomagnetic field to settle around mostly quiet to unsettled levels.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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