[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2022 Dec 05 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2022 Dec 05 0144 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 November - 04 December 2022

Solar activity was at low to moderate (R1-Minor) levels this period. Region 3152 (N27, L=083, class/area Cao/120 on 26 Nov) produced an M1.0/1n at 01/0721 UTC. Region 3157 (N16, L=300, class/area Dso/210 on 04 Dec) produced an M1.2/Sn flare at 03/1741 UTC. A 456 km/s Type II Sweep signature was associated with this event. Numerous C-class activity was also assocated with both of these regions as well as C-class activity from Regions 3151 (S16, L=154, class/area Dao/060 on 24 Nov), 3153 (S17, L=327, class/area Fko/1080 on 04 Dec), 3155 (N23, L=026, class/area Dai/140 on 04 Dec) and 3156 (N25, L=319, class/area Dao/220 on 03 Dec). No Earth-directed CME signatures were detected during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 28 Nov and high levels on 29-30 Nov and 01-04 Dec. A peak flux of 17,351 pfu was observed at 03/1740 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from unsettled to active levels throughout the period. Minor storm levels (G1-Minor) were observed on 28-30 Nov and 01 Dec. The field was under the influence of a pair of positive polarity CH HSSs.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 December - 31 December 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares are possible on 05-13 Dec and 18-31 Dec due to current and returning M-class producing regions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be reach high levels on 05-08 Dec and 24-31 Dec due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 07-09 Dec, 17-18 Dec and 22-31 Dec with G1 (Minor) storm levels expected on 22 Dec and 25-28 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

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