[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3153 (S17E27, Fko/beta) was the largest spot group on the visible disk but only produced low-level C-class activity. The region along with 3156 (N25E33, Cso/beta) changed very little over the past 24 hours. Region 3154 (S38, L=047) decayed to plage. Region 3157 (N16E55, Dao/beta) developed a small trailer spot. Region 3158 (N24E06, Cro/beta) increased in spot count but no mature penumbra was observed in the region. Region 3155 (N23W31, Dso/beta) developed the most overall, with new spots emerging and also exhibited an increase in penumbral area.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flare activity, and a slight chance for M-flares (R1-Minor), over 05-07 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 9,710 pfu observed at 04/1405 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 05-07 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters suggested continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds remained elevated between ~480-540 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-8 nT. The Bz component was sustained near -7 nT from around 04/1300-1600 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to continue to wane over 05 Dec, with background solar wind conditions expected to prevail on 06-07 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 05 Dec under waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 06 Dec under a nominal solar wind regime. Late on 07, the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS will likely increase geomagnetic conditions to active levels.

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