[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3153 (S16E02, Eko/beta), despite its size, continued to produce no significant X-ray flares. Some decay of its intermediate spots was observed but otherwise, it was unchanged. Regions 3155 (N22W55, Cao/beta), 3157 (N17E27, Cso/beta) and 3158 N24W25 (Cro, beta) were all stable in various stages of decay. Regions 3159 (N30E59, Axx/alpha) and 3160 (N26E66, Hsx/alpha) rotated into view and were numbered this period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low throughout the forecast period (07-09 Dec). There is a chance for M-class flares and radio blackouts up to the R2 (Moderate) level. There remains a slight chance for X-class flares and R3 (Strong) radio blackouts as well.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. A peak flux of 2,250 pfu was observed at GOES-16 at 06/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels for the next three days (07-09 Dec) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was at nominal levels until late in the period when conditions became enhanced from what is likely the CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Density became elevated after ~0630 UTC, Bt reached a peak of 14 nT, and Bz reached -12 nT. Though, solar wind speeds remained below 400 km/s and the phi angle remained in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Near background solar wind conditions are expected the first half of 07 Dec. Late on 07 Dec a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated with its effects lasting through 08 Dec. Conditions are expected to recover on 09 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field remained at quiet levels.

Forecast: A negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected on 07 Dec. Active levels are expected with arrival. G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to be reached on 08 Dec when wind speeds are expected to peak. Conditions are expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled by 09 Dec.

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