[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Low level C-class flaring occurred from Regions 3153 (S17W40, Fko/beta-gamma), 3162 (S13E63, Hsx/alpha), and an area just beyond the SE limb near S20. Slight decay was observed in the smaller intermediate spots of Region 3153. Slight growth was observed in Region 3161 (N26W10, Cro/beta) and in the intermediate area of Region 3157 (N16W02, Esi/beta). New Region 3162 was numbered. The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

Other activity included an approximate 18 degree filament eruption centered near S17E27 that began at 09/0620 UTC. Further analysis will be conducted as imagery comes in.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low through 11 Dec. There is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at low to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 10-11 Dec due to elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced under a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 509-610 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-10 nT while the Bz component was between +9/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to slowly diminish over 09-10 Dec. Nominal conditions are anticipated for 11 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 09 Dec and quiet to unsettled on 10 Dec as solar wind conditions return to nominal levels. Quiet conditions are expected for 11 Dec.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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