[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels with four M-class flares. The largest flare was an M2.4/1N at 14/0740 UTC from Region 3165 (S20W44, Dso/beta). Region 3165 also produced an M1.1 flare at 14/1159 UTC. There was also an M1.1 14/0831 UTC and M1.4 14/0927 UTC from old Region 3153 (S15, L=327). A Type II radio sweep (925 km/s) was associated with the M1.1 and CMEs were observed associated with both M1 flares from 3153-Both are not Earth directed. There was an additional CME associated with a filament eruption centered near S40W30. This event was first visible in C2 imagery near 14/0430 UTC. Analysis and modeling are ongoing at the time of this writing but due to the far south latitude, this CME is not likely to have an Earth-directed component. Region 3163 (S20E22, Eso/beta) exhibited growth during the period and contributed C-class activity. Region 3167 (N20W07, Dai/beta) continued to grow and developed intermediate spots. All remaining regions were little changed or showed some dissipation. No other significant CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Low solar activity is expected to continue on 14-16 Dec, with a chance for M-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained normal to moderate and the greater then 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: Normal to moderate levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux are expected to continue, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background 14-16 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total IMF strength was primarily 5-6 nT and the Bz component underwent slight deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from 425 km/s to 350 km/s. Phi was negative.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to persist through 16 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail 14-16 Dec.

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