[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was high due to numerous M-class flares. Region 3165 (S19W69, Ekc/beta-gamma) remained the most active region and continued production of M-class flares, the largest being a M5.7/2N flare at 15/2240 UTC. An active region from beyond the NE limb produced an M1 flare at 15/1610 UTC. Region 3163 (S19E02, Ekc/beta-gamma) grew in areal coverage and developed mixed polarity spots. The remaining regions were little changed.

Several CMEs were detected in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery from the NE, SE, and SW limbs - none of these CMEs appear to have Earth-directed components.

Forecast: Moderate solar activity is likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare 16-18 Dec due primarily to the flare potential and activity history of Region 3165.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal-moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 16-18 Dec. There is a slight chance for a solar energetic proton event (S1-Minor solar radiation storm) all three days due to the event potential from favorably located Region 3165.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field strength ranged primarily from 5-8 nT and the Bz component was at benign values. Solar wind speed averaged 350 km/s and the phi angle was negative.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue 16-17 Dec. A negative polarity CH HSS may cause minor enhancements on 18 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Primarily quiet conditions are expected 16-17 Dec. Isolated unsettled periods are possible on 18 Dec due to influences from a CH HSS.

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