[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 3162 (S13W70, Bxo/beta), 3163 (S20W45, Eko/beta), 3167 (N20W70, Cso/beta), 3169 (N20E55, Fkc/beta-gamma) and 3170 (S18E57, Cso/beta) all produced multiple C-class flares during the period. Region 3163 continued to exhibit overall decay. Examination of Region 3169 suggests the eastern portion of the group might possibly be a separate spot group as the region continues to rotate onto the disk. All other regions on the disk exhibited little change.

A CME off the WNW Limb at 19/0312 UTC was modeled with limited imagery and indicated no Earth impact. Further analysis will be conducted as more imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on 19-21 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal-moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Dec. There is a slight chance for a solar energetic proton event (S1-Minor) on 19-21 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters became enhanced after 18/0945 UTC, possibly due to a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field increased to 10-16 nT, while the Bz component deflected southward to -13 nT at times. Solar wind speed increased slightly from around 300 km/s to about 360 km/s at times. The phi was oriented in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Continued enhancement in total field as well as a minor increase in the solar wind is expected for the remainder of 19 Dec based on STEREO A Mag & PLASTIC data. This will likely be followed by a connection to a positive polarity CH HSS on 20 Dec. HSS effects are expected to persist through 21 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 19 Dec. Active conditions are expected again on 20 Dec as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 21 Dec as HSS conditions persist.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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