[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. C-class flares were produced by Regions 3162 (S14W82, Axx/alpha), 3163 (S19W58, Eko/beta), 3167 (N20W83, Cao/beta), 3169 (N21E42, Eac/beta), and newly numbered Region 3171 (N25E59, Cao/beta). The largest flare was a C8 at 19/1429 UTC from Region 3169. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3167, 3169, 3170 (S19E45, Cro/beta), and 3171. Slight decay occurred in Regions 3162, 3163, and 3166 (S07W70, Dso/beta).

Other activity included a CME off the WNW limb at 19/0312 UTC and another CME off the NW limb at 19/1200 UTC. The first CME appeared as a high loop structure taking off from the western limb, however a source location was uncertain. The second CME appeared to be a 17 degree filament eruption centered near N05W65 beginning at 19/1144 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. Both CMEs were modeled and indicated no Earth impact.

A subsequent CME was observed in Lasco C2 coronagraph imagery, starting around 19/2230 UTC, propagating from the NW limb. This event was modeled and determined to not have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on 20-22 Dec.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal-moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 20-21 Dec. Moderate to high levels are likely on 22 Dec due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a solar energetic proton event (S1-Minor) on 20-22 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated an enhancement in the IMF to 10-12 nT. Bz was mostly north for the latter half of the period. Solar wind speed averaged about 350 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative. Real-time solar wind data then became suspect between ~19/2220-20/0430 UTC due to ongoing system (Faraday Cup) issues.

Forecast: A connection to a positive polarity CH HSS is expected late on 20 Dec. HSS effects are expected to persist through 22 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected late on 20 Dec as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 21 Dec followed by quiet to active levels on 22 Dec as HSS conditions persist.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation