[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with six numbered regions on the visible disk. Regions 3163 (S19W86, Dko/beta) and 3169 (N19E13, Dho/beta) have been the most active, producing occasional C-class flares. The largest flare of the period, C6 flare, was observed from Region 3169 at 21/0621 UTC. Region 3170 (S19E19, Bxo/beta) managed to produce an isolated C-class flare, even though its spots were immature. Regions 3171 (N23E30, Cao/beta) and 3168 (S16W30, Hsx/alpha) were unchanged since the last reporting period. New Region 3172 (S35E55, Hsx/alpha) was inactive.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on 22-23 Dec. By 24 Dec Region 3163 is expected to be beyond the west limb. As a result, only a slight chance of M and X-class flares are expected.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 24 Dec.

There is a slight chance for a solar radiation storm (S1-Minor) on 22-23 Dec while Region 3163 remains in a favorable position.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was suggestive of weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 13 nT early, then settled near 6 nT for most of the period. Bz underwent a few sustained southward deviations, reaching a maximum of -10 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 400-450 km/s. Phi was mostly positive.

Forecast: HSS effects are expected to continue to wane through 22 Dec before gradually decreasing to near background levels by 23 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to continue on 22 Dec. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 23-24 Dec with a return to ambient background conditions.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation