[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels with a few weak C-class activity observed. Regions 3169 (N20W03, Eho/beta) and 3171 (N25E19, Cao/beta) were the largest regions on the disk and produced only a few minor C-level enhancements throughout the day. Additional low-level C-class activity was observed from Regions 3170 (S19E02, Bxo/beta) and 3174 (N25E68, Axx/alpha). Overall area growth was observed in Region 3169. Little change was observed in the remaining regions.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares for the next three days (23-25 Dec).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels from 23-25 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was generally disturbed from what appears to be frequent connections with a passing positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength peaked at 10 nT about midday on 22 Dec while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deviation of -10 nT during that time frame. Wind speeds indicated a gradual increase during the period from about 400 km/s to about 510 km/s. The phi angle was generally oriented in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Intermittent HSS effects with enhanced wind parameters are expected through 25 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to active through the period due to influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: Day 1 (23 Dec) is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels with continued influence from the HSS. Thereafter, quiet to unsettled levels are expected through 25 Dec with continued HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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