[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 3169 (N20W16, Eso/Beta), 3170 (S19, L=114) and 3171 (N23E06, Cao/Beta) were both responsible for low-level C-class flare activity. Region 3171 produced the largest event of the period, a C6.6 at 23/1446 UTC. Region 3169 exhibited substantial decay in the trailer portion of the region while Region 3171 decayed in the leader portion around its lead spot area. The remaining active regions were mostly unremarkable in comparison.

A pair of CMEs, related to filament eruptions, were observed during the period. The first CME, observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery imagery at 23/2316 UTC, was associated with a filament eruption near Region 3170. LASCO C2 imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the S limb, first visible at 24/0136 UTC. The second CME, observed in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery imagery at 24/0204 UTC, was associated with a filament eruption near Region 3174 (N23, L=086). LASCO C2 imagery observed a rapid-moving CME off the NE limb, first visible at 24/0136 UTC. Both events were modeled and initial determination indicated no Earth-directed component exists with either CME. No other CMEs with a potentially Earth-directed component were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity will likely continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares 24-26 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 25 Dec and then increase to high levels 26-27 Dec in response to a sustained, faster solar wind regime. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels from 24-26 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was mostly steady to 10-11 nT through about 24/0745 UTC when it slowly weakened to near 5 nT. The Bz component was variable from +7/-10 nT throughout the period. Solar wind speeds averaged about 500 km/s through about 23/1930 UTC before an increase to 550-600 km/s through the end-of-the-period. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector.

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS influence is expected to continue through the forecast period with additional enhancements being likely on 26 Dec due to an additional positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods present.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor storm levels on 24 Dec, and active levels on 25-26 Dec, due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.

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