[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3169 (N21W27, Fhi/beta-gamma) grew in its intermediate spots while becoming more magnetically complex. 3169 also continued to be the primary source for low level C-class flare activity with a C7.8/Sf flare at 25/0701 UTC being the largest. Associated with this flare was a 210 sfu Tenflare and a slow-moving Type II sweep at 238 km/s.

Regions 3170 (S19, L=114) and 3174 (N23, L=087) both decayed to plage. The remaining four active regions were relatively unremarkable. New Region 3175 (S22E57, Cro/beta) emerged this period.

Two CMEs was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 24/0824 UTC and 25/0848 UTC off the SW limb related to activity from Region 3169. Analysis and model output suggested the trajectory was ahead of Earth with no impact expected.

Forecast: Solar activity will likely continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares 25-27 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,509 pfu at 24/1750 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels through 26 Dec before decreasing to moderate levels on 27 Dec with the likely arrival of the 24 Dec CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels from 25-27 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field ranged from 4-7 nT while the Bz component underwent several, sustained southward deflections of up to -6 nT. Wind speeds varied somewhat, but averaged between 532-575 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive with brief excursions into a negative solar sector. Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS enhancements are expected to continue through 26 Dec. An additional disturbance in the solar wind environment is anticipated early on 27 Dec with the arrival of the aforementioned 24 Dec CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels in response to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to reach isolated active periods through 26 Dec due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 27 Dec with the arrival of the 24 Dec CME.

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