[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3169 (N22W39, Fkc/beta-gamma) increased in area, particularly in the intermediate and trailer area. The region produced numerous low end C-class flares. This region continues to produce CMEs off the SW limb, but none were determined to be Earth-directed. Region 3171 (N24W20, Cao/beta) and new Region 3176 (N19E67, Hax/alpha) also produced a few low-level C-class flares. There remaining numbered regions were stable and inactive.

Forecast: Solar activity will likely continue at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares through 28 Dec, and an even lesser chance for X-class flares.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,165 pfu at 26/0945 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels through 26 Dec before decreasing to moderate levels on 27 Dec with the likely arrival of a CME that erupted on 24 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels through 28 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Positive polarity CH HSS influences persisted. Total field ranged from 6-10 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 to -10 nT. The solar wind generally trended from 395 km/s to around 710 km/s throughout the day. However, low densities have introduced sampling error, making wind observations at DSCOVR less reliable. Phi was oriented in a positive solar sector through about 26/1020 UTC when a switch to a more negative orientation occurred.

Forecast: Positive polarity CH HSS enhancements are expected to continue through 26 Dec. The near-Earth environment is expected to become disturbed on 27 Dec with the arrival of a CME that erupted from the Sun on 24 Dec.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels as CH HSS influences slowly waned.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels on 26 Dec as CH HSS effects continue to diminish. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 27 Dec with the arrival of the 24 Dec CME.

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