[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2022 Dec 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2022 Dec 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at moderate levels due to two M-class flares from newly numbered Region 3180 (N17E74, Dao/beta). The largest of these flares was a M2.4 (R1-Minor) event at 29/1833 UTC. This region was also responsible for several C-class flares, including a C9.6 flare at 30/1114 UTC. Regions 3172 (S25W41, Bxo/beta) and 3179 (N13W17, Cao/beta) produced a few C-class flares as well, despite neither region exhibiting much change. Region 3176 (N20E17, Eki/beta-gamma) was still the most notable spot group on the visible disk, developing a beta-gamma configuration during the period. Despite its complex magnetic structure, it remained mostly inactive throughout the period. The remaining regions showed little changed and were mostly inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance of X-class (R3; Strong) events 30-31 Dec and 01 Jan due the enhanced magnetic structure and recent flare history of active Regions 3176 and 3180.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 2,810 pfu at 29/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: Moderate to high levels of the greater than 2 MeV electron flux are expected 30-31 Dec and 01 Jan due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the likely passage of an anticipated CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength reached 12 nT, the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -11 nT, and the solar winds reached nearly 500 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly positive with several oscillations into a negative orientation.

Forecast: Enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely for the remainder of 30 Dec as CIR effects persist. Following the passing of the CIR, the HSS is likely to settle in, with increased wind speeds and possible enhancements in the IMF on 31 Dec. Solar wind speeds are likely to decline on 01 Jan as CH HSS influences begin to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming possible on 30 Dec. Active conditions are still feasible on 31 Dec as CH HSS effects persist, yet begin to subside later in the period. Mainly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 01 Jan.

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