[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 3176 (N19W36, Eao/beta), 3177 (S18W03, Dao/beta), and 3180 (N19E23, Dso/beta) all produced C-class flare activity during the period. However, the largest flare of the period was a long-duration C4 flare that originated from a region just beyond the east limb, and was on-going as of this summary.

Regions 3176 and 3179 both exhibited slight decay, while Regions 3180 and 3181 both were relatively unchanged. The only spot group that demonstrated any growth was Region 3177. This region added a few more small intermediate and trailing spots throughout the day. Region 3173 (N24, L=50) decayed to plage as it rotated around the western limb. The remainder of the spotted regions were mostly unchanged and inactive.

An asymmetric, partial halo CME was observed departing the E limb area at approximately 03/0636 UTC. This event was associated with the C3.2 flare from a region just beyond the SE limb, likely old Region 3163 (S19, L=231) expected to return on 04 Jan. A Type II (est 624 km/s), a Type IV, and an F10.7 Ten flare were all observed in association with the C3.2 flare. Due to the source location, the CME is not anticipated to have any impacts at Earth, but modeling is under way to verify.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity over 03-05 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,546 pfu observed at 02/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 03 and 05 Jan while a dip to moderate levels is likely on 04 Jan with the arrival of a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: A return to near background levels was observed throughout the period. Solar wind speeds continued to fall from just under 500 km/s to end the period near 415 km/s. Total field strength was less than 5 nT, while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle became variable after 02/0900 UTC, but settled into a positive orientation after 02/2230 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced on 04-05 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influences coupled with a possible glancing blow from the 30 Dec CME on 04 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of 03 Jan. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm periods are likely on 04-05 Jan due to the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of a CME from 30 Dec.

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