[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 3181 (S21W81, Eai/Beta-Gamma) was little changed this period yet responsible for the largest flare, an impulsive M3.9/SN at 13/1015 UTC. A type II radio sweep at 13/1020-1025 UTC registering 381 km/s was associated with this event. Region 3182 (S18W27, Eki/Beta-Gamma) continued to exhibit decay in its trailing spots while producing a pair of M1 flares at 12/1457 UTC and 12/1913 UTC. Region 3184 (S12E20, Eho/Beta-Gamma) grew slightly in overall length while developing maturing trailing spots. Region 3185 (N19W49, Cao/Beta) underwent decay in its trailing spots, but was relatively quiet. Region 3186 (N28E30, Dki/Beta-Gamma) produced an M1.4 flare at 13/0259 UTC while showing slight consolidation in its trailing spots. Region 3188 (S23E52, Dro/Beta) remained stable and quiet. Region 3189 (N23W25, Bxo/Beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. The CME event associated with very slight coronal dimming near 12/0100 UTC in the vicinity of AR 3185 was modeled and determined to be a miss just north of the Sun-Earth line, passing closest on 16 Jan.

Other notable activity this period included new emerging regions visible on the eastern limb in NASA SDO HMI imagery and a fast CME from the southwestern portion of the limb. These new emerging regions have yet to be reported by USAF observatories and are extremely foreshortened thus preventing proper analysis and numbering consideration at this time, but are noted. The aforementioned CME was first observed in NASA SOHO LASCO C2 imagery around 12/2148 UTC. Initial analysis and parameters support a behind the limb event, likely by a day or two. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with the continued likelihood of M-class (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events through 13 Jan. Probabilities decrease slightly 14-15 Jan with a chance for M-class flares remaining.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal at normal to moderate levels. Beginning near the start of the new UTC day, the 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced, reaching a peak flux of 4.51 pfu at 13/0340 UTC. This enhancement was likely the result of the large, fast CME event observed from just behind the southwest limb.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 13-15 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels, but a chance for a threshold event remains a reality for 13 Jan. Probabilities for an event decrease to a slight chance 14-15 Jan as Region 3181, along with the culprit of the current particle environments state, continue beyond the western limb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were indicative of weak negative polarity CH HSS influence and then later possible glancing, transient-like influence. Total field was slightly elevated between 7 and 8 nT most of the period, but has weakened in the later hours of the period. The Bz component of the IMF spent a majority of the period southward, reaching sustained deflections of -5 to -8 nT. Solar wind speeds were primarily 400 through ~415 km/s. Phi was in a negative orientation, but became increasing variable starting near 13/0757 UTC.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the IMF are likely to continue, yet gradually wane, over the course of 13 Jan. A CME (from 11 Jan) is expected to pass behind and north of Earths position on 14 Jan, however, there is a possibility of minor influences from the flanking perimeter proximity of the transient. If this materializes, the solar wind field is likely to experience a disturbance and enhancement. Any IMF disturbances are likely to weaken and dissipate on 15 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in varied response to the mildly disturbed and enhanced solar wind field.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of 13 Jan as CH HSS and transient-like related effects diminish. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for active levels, are anticipated for 14-15 Jan should any enhancements from the nearby transient passage in the solar wind field develop.

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