[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3190 (S14E38, Fki/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M4.8/2b flare (R1-Minor) at 15/1431 UTC, the strongest of the period. This region and Region 3193 (S21W42, Dso/beta) both exhibited minor growth. The remaining seven numbered regions with spots were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels, with M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) flares likely, and a slight chance of X-class (R3-Strong) events on 16-18 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 16 Jan. An increase to moderate to high on 17-18 Jan is expected due to transient effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels, but a slight chance for a threshold event remains a possibility for 16-18 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected continued influence from a CME that left the Sun on 11 Jan. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 14 nT and the Bz component varied between +/-9 nT. Solar wind speeds were between ~425-530 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in solar wind parameters are likely to slowly diminish on 16 Jan as effects from the 11 Jan CME wane. A return to mostly ambient levels are expected late on 16 Jan through 17 Jan. Enhancements are expected on 18 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels during the 15/2100-2400 UTC synoptic period in response to continued CME effects.

Forecast: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet to active levels during the latter half of 16 Jan. Mostly quiet conditions are likely over 17 Jan as solar wind conditions trend towards ambient levels. An increase to unsettled conditions are likely on 18 Jan due to the anticipated onset of CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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