[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2023 Jan 23 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2023 Jan 23 0145 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 January 2023

Solar activity was high. Region 3190 (S15, L=119, class/area, Eki/950 on 18 Jan) produced dual M1.8 flares at 17/2329 UTC and 18/1035 UTC. These flares tied for the largest of the period. Region 3190 also produced an M1.1 flare at 22/1226 UTC. Region 3196 (N12, L=084, class/area, Dro/30 on 18 Jan) provided an M1.1/Sf flare at 19/0403 UTC; an M1.7 flare at 19/1012 UTC; and an M1.0/Sf flare at 19/1027 UTC. The only other M-class producing region was Region 3194 (S24, L=132, class/area, Dai/130 on 22 Jan) with an M1.6/1b flare at 22/1702 UTC. There was a combined total of seven M-class flares during the period, all at the R1 (Minor) level, and none with significant radio signatures.

No reportable proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however, 10 MeV proton flux became enhanced, reaching a peak flux of 1.01 pfu at 20/1425 UTC. The source of this slight flux increase was believed to be a C-class event from Region 3190.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged between quiet and active levels. Active conditions were observed on 16-18 Jan, in response to combined influence of the 11 Jan CME and a recurrent, positive-polarity CH HSS. Active conditions were also observed on 21 Jan in response to an additional positive-polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed during the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 January - 18 February 2023

Solar activity is likely to remain at moderate to high levels throughout the outlook period due to numerous, existing and returning M and X-class flare producing regions.

There is a slight chance for proton events at geosynchronous orbit, during the outlook period, due to the magnetic complexity and flare history of the abundant sunspot groups.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 24-30 Jan in response to recurrent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active conditions are likely on 23-25 Jan and 01, 07-10 Feb; unsettled levels are likely on 26-29 Jan, and 02, 12-13, 18 Feb. Increased geomagnetic activity is in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.

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