[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3194 (S25W63, Dai/beta-gamma) produced the strongest event of the period, an M1.7/1b flare (R1 - Minor) at 22/1702 UTC. Region 3190 (S14E55, Dki/beta-gamma-delta) also produced an M-class event, reaching M1.1 at 22/1226 UTC. Both regions exhibited minor changes, with some decay intermixed with growth in other spots. The remaining six numbered active regions were either stable or in gradual decay.

A fairly fast-moving CME was observed in SOHO LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 23/0500 UTC. The event seems to be associated with activity on the far side of the Sun. No other observed CMEs appear to contain an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 23-25 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 23-24 Jan with a likely increase to moderate to high levels on 25 Jan due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Mild enhancements in the solar wind parameters continued through the period. A discontinuity in total magnetic field strength (Bt) was observed at 23/0258 UTC, which increased Bt from ~5nT to ~10 nT. A slow and steady decline in Bt followed through the end of the day. The Bz component was primarily oriented northward after the enhancement with the exception of a brief rotation to -8 nT at 23/0714 UTC. Solar wind speeds were between 450-550 km/s, with speeds ending the reporting period near 500 km/s. Phi was transitioned from mostly positive to variable after the passage of the transient feature in the IMF.

Forecast: The solar wind is likely to remain enhanced on 23-25 Jan due to positive polarity CH HSS influence coupled with possible CME influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to isolated active levels over 23-25 Jan in response to positive polarity CH HSS effects coupled with possible CME influence.

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