[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels following an isolated M2.8 flare at 26/1306 UTC from Region 3192 (N15, L=121). An associated CME was analyzed and deemed to be non-Earth directed.

Regions 3200 (N16E12, Cao/beta) and 3203 (N16E16, Cro/beta) were the only two regions that exhibited growth during the period. However, only Region 3200 produced flare activity, which included low-level C-class flares. The remaining six regions were either stable or showing signs of decay. Other C-class activity was observed from a region rotating onto the SE limb.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) and slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 27-29 Jan. Probabilities are slightly increased for 28-29 Jan with an active region rotating onto the SE limb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 27-29 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected slight enhancements over the period, likely attributed to weak CH effects. Total field was between 6-9 nT for most of the period. The Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -7 nT, while the solar wind speeds were between 525-550 km/s. Phi was mostly positive during the period.

Forecast: Occasional enhancements are still expected to persist through 27 Jan as positive polarity CH HSS influence continues. Conditions should begin to gradually decrease by late 28 Jan/early 29 Jan as CH effects dissipate.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods on 27 Jan as CH HSS effects linger. By 28 Jan, and into 29 Jan, conditions should begin to return to nominal levels.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation