[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Jan 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Jan 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Several low level C-class flares were observed from an unnumbered Region rotating onto the SE limb near S12. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3205 (S23W56, Cao/beta) and 3206 (S22E54, Cro/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay.

Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S58W50 beginning at 29/1157 UTC in H-alpha imagery. A CME was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery beginning at 29/2338 UTC that was likely associated with the event. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 30-31 Jan and 01 Feb, mostly due to activity from active regions on the SE limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Jan-01 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated waning effects of a positive polarity CH HSS during the first half of the period followed by a solar sector boundary crossing at 29/2341 UTC. Solar wind speed declined from approximately 500 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT.

Forecast: Mostly nominal solar wind conditions are expected on 30 Jan-01 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Jan-01 Feb.

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