[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2023 Feb 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2023 Feb 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C6 at 05/0326 UTC from a plage area near S12E85. Slight decay was observed in Regions 3207 (S14E03, Cao/beta), 3209 (N18E33, Cao/beta), 3210 (S15W24, Bxo/beta), and 3211 (S16W36, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 05-07 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 05-07 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speed ranged from 310-400 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Ambient solar wind conditions are expected on 05 Feb. An enhanced solar wind environment is expected over 06-07 Feb in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected on 05 Feb under an ambient solar wind environment. Unsettled levels are expected on 06 Feb, and active conditions are expected on 07 Feb, in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

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